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It’s 100 degrees outside – does it matter if your AC is set to 72 or 73?

As this heat bubble hovers over New England many folks are heading home on a Friday night to turn on two things – the Red Sox and their air conditioners.

As they collapse into their couches, is it a big deal if they set their thermostat to 72 versus 73 degrees?

Let’s do some back of the envelope math:

The US residential market consumes 1.5 billion kWh of electricity this year, air conditioning is 9% of the total electricity use, and the average retail price of electricity is $0.119 kWh

So if we all got used to setting our thermostats to 73 instead of 72 (a savings of @ 1-3%) we would reduce our annual energy cost by somewhere between $160 million and $480 million dollars a year.

Does 72 feel THAT much better?

    Home Energy Apps – not yet “plug and play”

    Of course the conventional view is that the smart grid market will be “huge” – and the target for smart grid today is squarely on the residential market.  So it shouldn’t be missed that within days of each other both Google and Microsoft killed their initial home energy software applications.

    First came Microsoft, shutting down their Hohm effort, saying “due to the slow overall market adoption of the service” they would focus instead on the commercial market.  Then came Google announcing it was stopping support for PowerMeter, their consumer home energy visibility tool, saying it had “not scaled as quickly as we would like.”

    This is not the first time a high tech company has overestimated the adoption rate for home networking and software applications.  And the reason for the overestimate is similar to earlier miscues.

    Home networking is hard.

    When a consumer needs to plug hardware from one company into software from another, things get tricky.  It’s the reason why most homeowners still don’t have their home printers hooked up to Ethernet.  It’s why Apple’s Airport Express is mostly used for a single application; rebroadcasting iTunes.

    Unless it works out of box with a plug, home networking system integration projects are only for serious DIYers.  Not to say there hasn’t been progress with early smart meter rollouts to the home, but the facts are today it’s still very early.

    Even a programmable thermostat is too hard for the consumer, so Comverge has found a way to turn this into a utility DR delivery business.  Unless the utility pays for and implements early home networking apps on the backs of their initial smart meter rollouts, adoption in the home will continue to move very slowly.

    At least Microsoft says they’re focusing now more on commercial market applications, a practical shift for them.   Businesses have IT and facility managers.  They can deal with hardware and software integration projects – directly or by using outside service providers as they do already.

    And the bulk $ savings for energy application networking in businesses is more significant – which makes the pain of figuring out which plug goes into which box more worthwhile.

      EnterpriseSmartGrid.org is launched

       

      Today we launched our new site enterprisesmartgrid.org.  Our idea to develop it came as we were conducting our initial customer research on the ESG market.  As we tested the three functional areas, (Visibility, Control and Integration) with corporate energy, facility and sustainability managers,  some began commenting that even the term “Enterprise Smart Grid” resonated with them.

      So using Marketing 101 we knew that by developing a .org vendor neutral, collaborative blog, twitter, newslisting we could likely bring together an even broader group of interested people around the ESG concept.

      As we learned when we launched the term “Enterprise Carbon Accounting” in 2009, sometimes a market’s name can take on a changed, broader meaning as more people begin using it, something no one person or organization can control – now we’ll get to see if that’s the case again with “Enterprise Smart Grid.”

        Incentives for the “5th fuel” can still be complex

        Jim Rogers from Duke Energy famously promotes efficiency as the “5th Fuel” in the world-wide portfolio of energy production.  He echoes the consensus that renewable energy requires massive incentives to make it financially viable, while energy efficiency does not, and hence these opportunities should be more actively addressed.

        The dirty little secret is that energy efficiency regularly requires incentives as well.

        Though it may seem counterintuitive, many companies look for a five to ten year payback on their renewable energy investments, while they continue to apply “it better be under a three year payback or it won’t get done” for more traditional energy efficiency projects.  Consequently, while EE projects have better returns, incentives are often still critical to getting these projects inside this payback hurdle.

        Over the last twelve months, 70% of the EE projects Groom Energy implemented have been supported by some kind of financial incentive.  Whether it’s a traditional motor or lighting upgrade with a utility rebate or a CHP system gaining Massachusetts’ Alternative Energy Credits, our engineers spend a lot of time trying to identify and secure the best incentives available for each customer project.

        Each utility, state, city, county or municipality may have it’s own specific program.  In California alone there are over 200 different efficiency incentives.  Providing a bit of help on the identification front, the folks at DSIRE are doing their best to keep up, with an on-line database tracking thousands of renewable and energy efficiency incentive programs across the entire US.

        Determining how to sure our customers will get the incentives can be just as painful.  Some authorities take a prescriptive approach, allocating a specific $ incentive figure for each measure deployed.  Others take a custom approach, applying a $ figure for the total energy saved or produced.   Some burden projects with small $ incentives with detailed energy modeling and pre and post project measurement and verification.

        While the complexity provides a distinct competitive advantage for those who have the IQ and fortitude to understand and maximize the incentive benefits, customers perceive much of this as additional risk.  And with risk comes hesitation.

        Because of this, some groups are pushing for a national approach to energy efficiency and renewables, a National Efficiency Standard. The Energy Future Coalition, in partnership with American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), Natural Resources Defense Council, the Environmental Law and Policy Center, Environment Northeast, and the Sierra Club, have proposed an EERS that sets a 15% electricity and 10% natural gas savings target by 2020.  Other approaches would equally value the benefit of a megawatt saved or produced.   This would be similar to a REC which establishes value based on the projected performance of a renewable asset, but on a national scope.  Others, differentiate between production and efficiency, rewarding each with it’s own specific incentive.

        What most of these folks do agree on is that reducing the complexity and risk of the puzzle of incentives would deliver more impact than most other energy or carbon reduction initiative in the que.  The question remains, who will lead the effort to drive it?  The Department of Energy? The White House?

          What’s the Fracking problem?

          Like a trendy social networking term, fracking has entered everyday conversation.  For the sake of the US economy we should all hope the trend is not fleeting….

          Based on the controversial horizontal drilling technique, the energy markets have already assumed new access to large US natural gas reserves, and consequently prices for natural gas are forecasted to stay low for the foreseeable future.

          Of course investors are scrambling to participate, with the largest private equity firms getting ready to put down a large bet on the success of fracking.  As one utility executive told me recently, “our electricity rate negotiation with the PUC is heavily based on fracking.”  On the corporate front, Groom Energy customers have also priced in low expected inflation for their cost of electricity for the next few years.  Which affects how they consider energy efficiency investments such as on-site generation with CHP, a gas to electricity arbitrage opportunity.

          However, with uncertain, but potentially seriously negative environmental impact, the future of fracking remains unpredictable.  Concerns range from polluting water supplies to causing earthquakes (which recently led to a temporary ban in the UK.)    New interest groups are rallying to more closely regulate fracking or stop it completely.  Investors are asking companies like Chevron and Exxon to report their activities.  And after sitting on the sidelines,  the EPA is finally considering how they’ll be involved.

          The problem is that the outcome has the chance to be very binary.

          Should the EPA come out with a policy which legislates more oversight and compliance, the markets would be largely unaffected.

          But if they determine that the technique is environmentally unsound, and temporarily suspend it (like they did for offshore drilling after the Gulf disaster), stall it like nuclear post Japan or ban it (as France is already considering,) prices for short term and long term natural gas (and electricity) would spike immediately.

          While we know over the long term financial markets are efficient and will price in either scenario, the latter outcome could be a body blow the US economy doesn’t need at this point.

            Lightfair 2011 – Welcome to LED 2.0

            Everyone knew Lightfair 2011 was going to be all about LEDs.

            LED’s had their coming out party at Lightfair 2009.  Back then fluorescents still dominated, but white LEDs showed up in “soon to be released” form, providing excitement to an industry that hadn’t seen real technical change in 30 years.

            Lightfair 2010 became LEDfair, with new product introductions covering every category and the largest vendors marketing LEDs front and center, ahead of their traditional products.

            At Lightfair 2011 we witnessed LED 2.0.

            Attendees now speak LM79 and LM80. Real customer case studies are more plentiful.  Chips have 30% higher performance.  Second generation products with the latest chips have replaced last year’s first and worst designs, correcting mistakes based on another year of selling….and learning….and redesigning….and retooling…..and re-introducing.

            On the technology front some newer controversial approaches are appearing.

            By moving the phosphor away from the surface of chip, remote phosphor designs claims 10% added efficiency.  Philips thinks this can work, as does Intermatix – but the approach uses blue LEDs with a specific wavelength range – and those chips only come from Philips and CREE.  Luminus Devices and Bridgelux are betting on bigger chips for higher performance while CREE has introduced a smaller, more specialized chip package which reaches high performance levels for specific fixture form factors, first implemented in their recent MR16 lamp.  And Lighting Science Group,  Switch (formerly Superbulb) and Liquidleds have all bet they can address the LED heat dissipation problem by adding fluid to the cavity around the LED chip.

            While last week’s LSG announcement with Google caught people’s attention, the power of the networked LED system is now well marketed by companies like Redwood SystemsDaintree Networks and our friends at Digital Lumens.

            In our Enterprise LED Research Report published last year we profiled 50 credible vendors and listed 250+ in our running database.  With all of this week’s new product introductions both of those lists will be growing.

            Last year the newest LED products had both high $ pricing and low performance vs. existing light sources. This year performance has advanced by 30%, but fixture prices still have an initial cost which is 50 – 100% more than the traditional lamp sources.  Prices for chips are obviously expected to continue to come down with Philips predicting a 50% drop for their A lamp in the next five years.

            So while its more clear that eventually LEDs can cost-effectively replace every type of lighting fixture, vendors must now combat customer perception.  Even though utility rebates are high and likely to go down and the LED is only 30-50% of the bill of materials, customer’s may just decide that if products have made so much progress since last year, why not just wait for LED 2.1 when the math gets better?

              Enterprise Smart Grid™ helps Corporations drive energy efficiency behavior change

              Today’s hype around Smart Grid 2.0 continues to be focused on utilities and the homeowner.

              Policy makers predict intelligent networks of electrons flowing in and out of the home.  The theory is that during peak-pricing, high-demand periods, utilities will save homeowners money by automatically slowing down their air conditioners and refrigerators and buying electricity from their solar array and the electric vehicles plugged into their garage.  And consumers, receiving continuous electricity usage & cost updates via web, email, text, Facebook and Nintendo, will change their behavior.

              This last point is the trickiest.  Our engineers can model energy savings from intelligent systems based on past operating history, but predicting savings from behavior change is more challenging.  We’ve seen $4 gasoline drive behavior change.   At some price, consumers will choose to dry their clothes at 11pm instead of 4pm.  But for now we’re still guessing on how significantly electricity cost signaling can drive consumer behavior change.

              Recently we installed an energy monitoring and control system for a large industrial customer.  Like the utility Smart Grid, this Enterprise Smart Grid provides our customer with visibility, intelligent control and integration into their business.

              The system monitors facility-wide consumption of gas, electricity and water.  Instead of monthly utility bills sitting in boxes in the purchasing department, current and historical usage is continuously reported, visible across the corporate intranet, with alarming for extraordinary events enabled.

              The business rules around controlling demand, integrating with OpenADR and participating in Demand Response events can now be built into the system.

              But the system’s most powerful effect comes from its integration with the company’s accounting system.

              Previously energy costs were considered general overhead, assigned pro-rata to each department or product line based on an annual management estimate.  As line managers couldn’t change this overhead allocation, they had limited motivation to reduce energy consumption. Participating in Demand Response events was an annoyance.  And when our team installed an energy-saving retrofit project somewhere in the plant it didn’t show up on that manager’s radar screen.

              With sub-meters on pumps, presses and furnaces actual product line energy usage and costs are now reported into the P&L, giving line managers a new metric:  cost of energy per product produced. Which means it matters.  Demand Response dollars can now flow back into their business as contribution margin.  All of a sudden shutting down a large gas-fired furnace for the weekend during a quiet period has a direct impact on their bottom line.   And all this affects that manager’s performance bonus.

              Now that intelligence really has the chance to drive behavior change.

                Attn: Steven Chu – Support Utility On-Bill Financing with DOE Loan Guarantees

                Whenever a utility offers our customer on-bill financing we know we’ll be installing this energy efficiency project within a few months.  Our hit rate for these projects is literally 100%.

                The model is so straight forward it’s no surprise customers quickly say yes.  No capital budgeting process, no new banking relationship, just an extension to an existing long-standing utility relationship.   Whether its a municipal facility or a large corporation both recognize this option as a smart decision.  Their monthly bill stays the same or goes down, with energy savings offsetting the interest and principal on the loan.  Once paid off in a few years their monthly cost savings goes up even higher.

                So why isn’t on-bill financing offered more widely?

                Across the country PUC’s are increasingly mandating energy efficiency goals during their rate negotiations with utilities.  As part of the PUC’s rate negotiation they know on-bill financing adds another layer of cost, essentially taxing utilities twice – first requiring them to offer energy efficiency rebates and second having them extend loans to their customers.

                Although utilities already take credit risk everyday with their customers, they don’t like being a bank.  At the end of 2010 we learned that one publicly traded utility was discontinuing their wildly successful on-bill financing program for this exact reason.

                Meanwhile the DOE’s Loan Guarantee program’s stated mission is to “accelerate the domestic commercial deployment of innovative and advanced clean energy technologies.”  The controversial program seems to have spent $ billions funding cleantech development (ie. manufacturing) more than deployment.

                How about accelerating less sexy, but proven energy efficiency deployment?

                Offer utilities a loan guarantee which supports on-bill financing.

                With a Federal guarantee for loan repayment, utilities in every region would run fast to deliver on-bill financing.  The model would help them hit their PUC negotiated energy efficiency goals and, most importantly, reduce customer consumption.   Utilities would continue to source and qualify energy projects – but could then leverage their existing monthly billing relationships to off-load this high quality debt to banks and finance companies.  These could even be packaged and resold.  Can you say CARBs (Cleantech Account Receivables Bonds)?

                Where PACE got derailed because Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae wouldn’t support taking a subordinate position on their mortgages, the on-bill financing model requires very few participants to be initiated – the customer and the utility.

                In the past few weeks I’ve pushed this idea with a few folks, including the Environmental Defense Fund, a few utilities and on two Cleantech panels, one hosted by the New England Clean Energy Council, and another hosted by Boston’s Kellogg School of Management alumni group.

                As I rarely spend cycles trying to influence Federal policy it occured to me that our blog may be a better way to reach folks who can carry this idea a bit further.

                  CESA – our PPA for Energy Efficiency Projects

                  With our $2.6 million investment announcement we described that a portion of these proceeds would fund our CESA (Corporate Energy Services Agreement), our PPA for energy efficiency we began delivering in 2009.

                  For the background on how we developed our CESA let’s go back to 2007 to 2008, pre-financial market collapse, when solar power purchase agreements (PPAs) were all the rage in cleantech finance.

                  Cash starved tax-exempt customers with facilities in California (US Air Force, UC San Diego, etc.) were signing PPA contracts, outsourcing the ownership, maintenance and monetization of federal tax credits in exchange for “fixed” long term green electricity performance contracts.  A flurry of fund raising in 2007/2008 by Sun EdisonSolar Power Partners, Tioga and Recurrent gave everyone the impression that real money was being made…

                  At that time retail companies, including BJ Wholesalers, North Face and Wal-Mart, signed PPAs with grand carbon reduction statements.  In some cases they even projected saving real money – just consider Wal-Mart’s project in Hawaii where kWh is > $0.25/kWh.  But in most cases the actual $ cost savings per year for signing these PPA’s was a non-event.  Post the market collapse these corporate solar PPA deals have all but disappeared.

                  Corporate solar PPAs have been like teen sex.  Most companies talk about how they’ve considered them, even negotiated contracts – but very few have closed the deal.  Think about it – as a corporate manager, do you want to sign up your employer for a 20-year purchase contract, with kWh rate escalation, where the bulk savings are likely to occur after you’re retired?  The evidence says no.

                  However, the PPA craze did catalyze corporate debate about outsourcing energy projects, be they solar PV or energy efficiency.  While managers didn’t like a 20-year contract owned by a solar finance company with whom they’d never done business, they did like the no-cash down performance based services model.  Which is where we saw the opportunity for CESA.

                  Energy efficiency upgrade projects often get mired in the corporate capital budgeting process, taking 1 to 2 years to get approved.  Ironically some of these projects have a 1 to 2 year return on capital (causing us to wonder about the real capital efficiency of corporate investing.)  Also, as utility incentives change regularly, including them in budget payback calculations for projects to be purchased 18 months from now is an imperfect science to say the least.

                  In early 2009 we began developing our first CESA with an existing Groom Energy customer who was frustrated with their budgeting process.   Unlike their view of a third-party solar PV finance company, they wanted Groom Energy to own it – as a long term service partner.  The economic trade was a shared savings model which would eliminate their one to two year budgeting lag, guarantee them energy savings and outsource the maintainance and energy monitoring to someone who was already doing projects inside their facilities.  It also allowed us to put our money where our mouth was….we jumped at the opportunity.

                  By definition we’ve made our CESA structure performance based – priced in flat rate kWh or therms delivered – meaning if we don’t produce the energy (such as from a PV system) or reduce the energy (such as by adding VFDs) the company doesn’t pay anything.  And the company doesn’t need to speculate on energy rates 5 years from now in order to get comfortable with the savings opportunity.  Today’s low cost metering and software produces utility-like reporting for both our customer and our engineering team.

                  And while any contract structure can get complicated, our CESA terms are typically 5 years long, which is more consistent with a business plan, not a retirement plan – and means that we celebrate the results during the lifespan of our respective careers.

                    Cooling Tower VFDs – Energy Savings with No Performance Dropoff

                    When our engineers step onto a roof and see cooling towers with multiple cells/fans they see energy $avings.

                    Experience tells us these systems often use a simple on-off control scheme for their fan motors – meaning when cooling is required, fans cycle on sequentially, each turning on at full speed, until enough cooling is achieved to maintain the setpoint temperature.   Obviously if outside air temperatures are rising the system has to work harder and more fan motors turn on.  As outside air temperatures fall or the setpoints are reached, fans do the opposite, cycling off one at a time until all fan motors are off.

                    With this control model, if it takes six fans to maintain a setpoint and the outside air temperature goes up, even by one degree, another motor kicks on at full speed – a bit of overkill.   In an attempt to save energy in this situation some companies have installed VFDs so that the last motor will usually be running at slower than full speed.

                    The big miss here is that the VFD savings from just one motor running at a lower speed is inconsequential compared to running all the fans at lower speeds.  This model leverages all the fan capacity as one system.  The key insight uses the motor power vs energy consumption graph – it teaches us that running two fans at half speed consumes 75% less energy than running one fan at full speed.

                    But in which situations is it best to do this?  Industrial cooling towers often operate multiple shifts and run all year long.  Fast return investments depend on these longer run hours, but also the customer’s cost of electricity and potential utility rebates in the customer’s region, be they prescriptive or custom.  Commercial cooling towers in Northern US states are drained in the winter and run fewer hours, but have high rebates and strong utility incentives.

                    Let’s look at a Groom Energy customer example our engineers recently studied:

                    Our team sized a $45,000 VFD system for an industrial cooling tower with two cells and two 50hp fan motors.  The fans were running 4,000 per year and the customer paid $0.12/kWh for electricity.  For this application National Grid provided a $13,500 incentive.  The addition of the VFD’s saved $15,700 per year in electricity costs.  So our customer saw what our engineers saw – energy $avings – and a two-year payback on their investment – pretty cool, right?